We mentioned this week on the podcast that while the 3-1 start to the WCC season was good and that the team sure looked like it was improving, the true test of whether that was true would come with a trio of games that tipped off yesterday with a road trip to Moraga, California against the Gaels.

A loss never feels good, but in a game in which the closing line was SMC minus-15.5 — and the predictive models such as kenpom.com and barttorvik.com foresaw it more like 17 points — the Cougars did offer something akin to proof of concept in a six-point loss.

This is particularly true when you consider that the Cougs fell behind by 18 in the first half under a ridiculous barrage of 3s. A little 5-0 spurt before half closed the margin to 12, and WSU would whittle the lead all the way down to three with under eight minutes to go.

Saint Mary’s pulled away again — again, thanks to hot 3-point shooting¹ — but rather than folding, WSU continued to fight. Some might call the Cougs’ 8-2 run to close the game over the last two minutes garbage time points to make the game look closer than it was, but I’d call it a deserved final margin for a team that competed its ass off.

There are none that I can find, so here is coach David Riley’s postgame radio hit:

The offense took a long time to get going this year, but it appears we might have finally turned that corner. The Gaels are one of the best defensive teams the Cougs will face this season, and putting up 82 points on them — on the road, no less — is fantastic, and a far cry from where we were even a couple of weeks ago. If you’re into quantifying such things, WSU’s adjusted offensive efficiency — which takes opponent into account — was 1.22, their fifth highest of the season.

The Cougs continued their assault on the rim, making 22-of-30 2s (73%) against one of the best 2-point defenses in the country.² Glass was 5-of-7, ND Okafor was 6-of-6, and everyone else was 50% or better. I think Riley’s finally got that train rolling.

One thing about Saint Mary’s is that they provide a unique challenge for defenses, given their huge front line and their 6-foot-8 do-everything forward Paulius Marauskas. WSU perhaps overcompensated a bit in the first half, often doubling in the post … but doing so slowly and poorly. It’s not a thing the Cougs often do, given Okafor’s rim protection, and it showed: One or two simple passes often led to wide-open 3s for the Gaels, and they made WSU pay. Repeatedly.

Riley, to his credit, adjusted by switching to a 3-2 zone with a long player at the top — big man Emmanuel Ugbo even spent time up there — and it took SMC out of most of what they wanted to do: They thrive on getting inside and getting to the line but the zone completely clogged it up. They found 3s to even be difficult to get with the extended wings at the top of the zone.

Inexplicably, the Cougs went out of it in the last eight minutes, and the Gaels went back to doing what they do. But it’s important to note that the Gaels are a really, really good offensive team, and if they miss a few more 3s, this defensive performance ends up looking really good.

And that’s my biggest takeaway: Against most every other opponent left on WSU’s schedule, this kind of performance is a win. The team is undoubtedly getting better, as you can see in this chart of WSU’s Game Scores:

Now, let’s also be truthful: Part of the reason that trend line is going up is because the start of the season was so horrendous. Regardless, Riley gets credit for getting the team on the right path and playing more consistently at a top-100 level, and I’m glad it’s happening. It sure makes watching the team a lot more fun right now.

At least some of this is due to Riley finally tightening up his rotation, at least down the stretches of games. This team just isn’t very deep — and even less so right now with Tomas Thrastarson out for the foreseeable future — and it’s at its best when it minimizes bench minutes. Yesterday was a great example; the game got away in the first half when Riley was liberal with his bench minutes, and the Cougs were at their best in the second half really playing six with a bit of Adria Rogriguez³.

In addition to what you see here offensively, note that the Cougs gave up 1.39 points per possession in the first half, but 1.19 in the second half.

This is all positive, so I don’t want to be a downer. I guess I’ll just say I’m looking forward to a season under Riley where we don’t spend half of it playing like Ernie Kent is still coaching. Maybe next year!

The Cougars follow up their toughest game of the season to this point with what will be their new toughest game of the season when the Bulldogs come south to Pullman on Thursday. Kenpom.com gives the Cougs a 6% chance of winning and predicts a 17-point margin; barttorvik.com is a little more optimistic, pegging it at 10% and 15 points. Either way, those are pretty unfavorable numbers!

The Zags’ athleticism will present a totally different challenge for the Cougs, particularly on defense. Gonzaga does most of their damage inside the arc, but they don’t necessarily do it at the rim. And when they do take 3s — which isn’t very often, relatively speaking — they’re deadly.

But here’s one thing that gives me hope: Like Saint Mary’s, the Zags thrive on offensive rebounds. The Cougs are one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the country, and the Gaels found life a lot more difficult when they weren’t getting extra chances. Limiting Gonzaga to one shot might just be the sort of thing that gives WSU a lifeline.

Offensively, whether they have any chance at all is probably going to come down to turnovers: Gonzaga is one of the best in the country at taking the ball away, while WSU is … sketchy at hanging onto it. A big part of the turnaround yesterday was that the Cougs simply stopped giving it away. The importance of that ratchets up against Gonzaga.

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