Before I get on with today’s regular Monday newsletter, I just want to acknowledge something real quick: The news of four AAC schools rebuffing the reimagined Pac-12 and Gonzaga reportedly joining the Pac-12 (for a full share, even without football!) dropped as I was finishing this up.

My quick thoughts are this: It’s bad bad bad. The top priority had to be creating a football conference that was clearly cut above the other G5s for CFP access, and that has failed. Unless they can somehow the AAC schools back to the table, this is going to be MWC+2+Gonzaga(?). Yuck.

Anyway, we’ll have some more thoughts on that when this shakes out a little bit more.

Until then, let’s enjoy our 4-0 football team!

As writers, we’re always looking for a hook — some kind of narrative that we can build our stories around. Sometimes, I sit down to write these things and the hook is so clear that the story basically writes itself. Other times, I have to grind a little bit to find the hook, because the game was just sort of meh, but I still have to try and write something interesting.

Then, there are games such as Friday night — where it’s like … how the f%$k do I even make sense out of what I just watched??

Even with a couple of days to process WSU’s 54-52 win over San Jose State in 2OT, I’m still not sure how to parse what happened. Comebacks of 14 points by both teams? This was like one of those fake boxing scenes in Rocky movies where one guy punches the other like 10 times in a row, then the other guy comes back with 10 in a row, and they aren’t just little jabs, they’re haymakers, and somehow both are still standing?

Here’s the win probability chart¹ from Friday night:

If you don’t look at a lot of win probability charts, you probably have no idea how crazy that is.² Both teams had 90%+ odds of going on to victory twice each!

But oh, that 0.1%!

There’s always the temptation to do a lot of post hoc analysis in these situations, making big declarations about the heart of the team, how they always believed/never gave up, etc. Thing is, we already knew that about these guys. That’s not why they won this game. I mean, it was part of it, but let’s be real: They won because, when you’re facing one of these 1-in-1000 scenarios — where you’re holding the ball on your own 25 with only 20 seconds remaining after an incompletion on first down — you need at least a little bit of fortune.

You need your opponent — which should know that the only way WSU can create a problem is with a chunk pass? — to inexplicably play what looks like Cover 2, leaving that sideline pocket between the sitting corners and deep half safety wide open for WSU’s best receiver to run into, AND you then need your kicker — who earlier missed a PAT and has been shaky since last November — to come through with a long field goal at the very edge of his range.

The Cougs got both.

And somehow it got crazier from there?

I don’t know. Your mileage may vary on the craziness of dueling interceptions in overtime, followed up by a strip sack fumble recovery on SJSU’s 2-point try that could have extended the game. What I do know is that — broadly speaking — the nature of the contest was unsurprising. We all recognized in advance that this was a classic “trap” game; I’m sure the Cougs knew it themselves. The coaches surely did. But, unlike a video game or the things we dream up in our mind, the folks out on that field are actual people. And actual people have emotions and distractions and real life that can impact performance — something that’s doubly true for people in that 18- to 23-year old demographic that make up a college football team.

It’s part of why college sports so much fun and also maddening and unpredictable but also amazing.

Maybe in a perfect situation, the Cougs are nearly two TDs better than SJSU at home, as the Vegas line suggested.³ In the wake of emotional wins over Texas Tech and Washington, this was hardly a perfect situation — and that’s just on WSU’s side. It doesn’t even take into account that Brown and SJSU offensive coordinator Craig Stutzmann were playing and coaching against their former team, presumably with a little extra verve, or that SJSU’s other players very likely are feeling slighted for not being invited to the “new” Pac-12, much like we were the last two weeks.

It was pretty damn obvious from the start that this was anything but normal.

Yeah, WSU scored on its first drive to take an early 7-0 lead. But it took them 13 plays and nearly 6 minutes to go those 76 yards, a 5.8-yards-per-play grind that indicated the Cougs were, perhaps, not simply going to waltz into the end zone repeatedly. On the ensuing possession, the Spartans covered 75 yards in two plays thanks to a 66-yard TD run by Floyd Chalk IV straight up the gut.

Oh. Yeah. It’s going to be that kind of night.

But the reality is, no team is going to be performing at its peak for 12 games. It’s literally why the term “trap game” exists. What you hope for is that, on the nights when you’re not at your best, you can still figure out a way to win. And the Cougs did that, which is pretty massive for whatever the future holds for us this season. Our bowl game possibilities are the same as they have been in the old Pac-12, but now will be determined strictly by overall record. A win is a win is a win is a win, and every win matters.

In the end, that’s the only thing we need to make sense of. On a weekend where other non-Power 4 teams such as Northern Illinois and Memphis lost after big wins, the Cougars were not at their best and they still emerged from a severe test with their perfect record intact.

Many football coaches preach religiously about love and family and “play for the guy next to you” and all that sort of warm and fuzzy stuff. And every fan wants to believe that their coach is actually the one who is completely authentic and totally means it. It sounds great, and it makes us feel better about the guys we’re cheering for.

However, when it comes down to it, there’s very little evidence that most coaches are genuinely fostering that kind of an environment of mutual care.

WSU might be one of the exceptions.

Last week, Jake Dickert spoke after the Apple Cup about how they won because they love each other, not because they hate their opponent. It was a wonderful sentiment that sounded really good in that particular moment, having defeated our rivals who represented the university that 100% screwed us over.

But then, on Friday: Right after Quinn Roff strip sacked Brown, and the Cougars recovered to end the game, more than a few players immediately abandoned their celebration of their narrow escape to engage in one of the more heartwarming things that have ever materialized on a football field:

That kind of care and concern for an opponent is rare, and it obviously speaks to the kind of man Brown is — he clearly left a mark on his former teammates after two years in Pullman. But it also says something about Dickert that he’s fostered a culture where players would even care enough to run over and console a guy who had valiantly battled his heart out for the previous four hours, making play after play with his arm.

Another thing that speaks to the culture Dickert has built:

I try to remind people as often as possible that just about everything coaches say publicly is not for us, but for their team. And the message Dickert is sending to his players here is that nobody — not even himself — is above accountability. That’s a hell of a message from a leader. Running backs coach Mark Atuaia weighed in with a long tweet on Saturday morning:

If you didn’t click on it to see the whole thing, here’s the key passage:

It’s probably worth noting at this point that Dickert’s counterpart in Seattle did not respond the same way this past week to his own coaching blunder.

Having worked in and around sports journalism for as long as I have, I’m pretty cynical when it comes to coaches and their motivations. But Dickert has proven me wrong on just about everything at every turn, and while I’m still pretty skeptical that any coach can be truly pure in their motives and actions, everything Dickert has done since being hired has convinced me that he’s as genuine as a head coach at this level can possibly be.

As a fan, it sure is nice to both enjoy wins and feel good about the guys you’re rooting for.

I don’t need to tell you how much WSU’s kicker has struggled since the end of last season, and I also don’t need to remind you how much of an impact that had on WSU’s fortunes in 2023. In that context, maybe you — like me — were losing your mind after his second missed PAT of the season threatened to derail WSU’s comeback. I said some … well, let’s just say that some of the things I said after that miss were regrettable.

Such is the life of a kicker, all alone while being expected to perform flawlessly a handful of times a game. Nobody else on the team is evaluated so harshly with a binary rubric that leaves no room for nuance. Make the kick or don’t. Succeed or fail.

Janikowski has done a lot of failing. But when it came time to save the game with a 52-yarder as the clock expired in regulation, he coolly and confidently booted that sucker through the uprights as if he’d made his last 10 attempts in a row and not actually missed six of them.

That kind of mental fortitude is so foreign to me such that I’m actually amazed when I see it. And if we circle back to “great guys we can root for,” Janikowski certainly qualifies:

You love to see it.

Oh, and if you’d like to heap more praise on Dickert, he has never wavered publicly in his support of his kicker, even as the kicker continued to miss. One explanation could be that Dickert always believed in him; a more cynical one would be that there just is not a better option on the roster. But even if the latter is true, Dickert did exactly what a coach ought to be doing, knowing you might need him in a spot where there is no choice but to kick a field goal. Confidence matters, and Dickert never failed to pump his kicker full of confidence.

Janikowski deserves all the credit for coming through — full stop. But Dickert’s support surely couldn’t have hurt.

HONORABLE MENTIONS

Defensive coordinator Jeff Schmedding: Probably seems weird to laud a guy whose unit gave up 52 points, but the Cougs really tightened up late. Their efforts to get some pressure on Brown in the first three quarters were varied and also completely futile, but something finally clicked in the fourth. After going up 38-24 at the end of the third, SJSU went punt, downs, interception, punt.

The last drive is what most people will remember, but also remember how it happened. It took an insane (and basically undefendable) pass and catch to get into the red zone. Then on then on the go-ahead play — which was a third and long after a pair of incompletions — WSU shut down all of Brown’s options and flushed him out of the pocket, where he threw a ball 35 yards in the air, across his body, into three defenders … and somehow his receiver came down with it. Both throws strike me as something like 1-in-10 propositions, which would mean that the likelihood that both would come off is something like 1-in-100. That’s probably not far off, given that WSU’s win probability was 90%+ at the beginning of the drive.

When you play bend-but-don’t break, sometimes it breaks — which is why it’s always better to not bend at all. But credit to Schmedding and the defense for figuring things out and giving the offense a chance to win the game.

Quarterback John Mateer: I sometimes avoid writing about the QB because … I mean, everyone else is doing that and what am I going to add? But I have to note that Mateer turned in yet another monster performance in this one, throwing for 390 yards on 46 attempts (a healthy 8.5 yards per attempt) with four TDs plus 111 yards with his legs on 18 carries. That’s 501 yards of offense. From one guy.

Mateer continues not just to prove why he was the choice over Zevi Eckhaus, but that he is actually one of the better quarterbacks in the country. There will be those who want to nitpick his passing inconsistencies, and they are troublesome at times — he still didn’t reach 60% completion, and he did have the two interceptions. The first of those was simply unfortunate and just part of doing business when you throw the ball; the second was very dumb, never should have been thrown, and cost WSU a chance to put the game away in the first OT.

But overall, he didn’t do a bad job throwing the ball. His completion percentage was its highest in three games, and he did have some long stretches of accuracy in this one — from the beginning of the second quarter until early in the third quarter he had a stretch of 14-of-20, if you’re into arbitrary end points. And, when it mattered, he fired some darts.

Beyond that, focusing too much on his marginal accuracy is failing to see the forest for the trees. What he brings to the table is the whole package — such as scrambling for an 8-yard gain with five seconds remaining to get WSU into a spot where Janikowski would have a chance to tie. If his passing frustrates you to the point that you can’t enjoy everything that he brings to the table, that bums me out for you. Because Mateer is a unique talent who should be enjoyed for what he is.

There’s not a lot of doubt in my mind at this point that Nick Nash is the best wide receiver we’ll see this season. When I wrote the gameday guide, I was unaware of his backstory, which included a conversion from quarterback. Now in his third year as a receiver, he has obviously put it all together, and I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if he’s on an NFL roster next fall. All that being said …

… man, our safeties and nickels got whipped by him.

His size (6-foot-3) would suggest outside receiver, but he did the vast majority of his damage from an inside position — which, not coincidentally, is where Washington receiver Giles Jackson lined up last week while torching our secondary.

WSU probably won’t face another receiver on the level of either of those guys, but I think it’s pretty clear that opposing coaches have effectively concluded just where it is that we are most vulnerable on defense. Stutzmann deserves a lot of credit for making sure that Nash would be matched up on Kapena Gushiken as much as possible, and try as he might, Gushiken just couldn’t keep up.

Maybe this is just what happens when a guy who is probably an NFL player matches up against a guy who probably is not. But I’m sure teams will try to find out, and it’s now Schmedding’s move to figure out how to counter.

DISHONORABLE MENTION

AP voters: Starting the season 4-0 with wins over 3-1 Texas Tech (at home) and 3-1 Washington (on the road, no matter what anyone says) wasn’t enough for the folks who cast the ballots — they put the Cougs just outside the top 25, one spot behind next week’s opponent, Boise State. There are many baffling data points, but that one is especially so, considering Boise State is 2-1. They’ve got an 11-point win over Georgia Southern and big win over Portland State, so I guess a 3-point loss on the road at Oregon is super awesome and better than beating Texas Tech and Washington?

As always, what matters most is who the voters thought you were going to be, and not who you actually are. Some might point to a narrow win over SJSU as evidence the Cougs don’t belong; but if a team that was supposed to be good does that, it’s just evidence that the team is gritty and gutty and “knows how to win.” These things can be spun any way anybody likes, but the truth is, the Cougs have put together a top 10 resume at this point: ESPN.com’s “Strength of Record” ranks them No. 7. In fact, there are four other teams who are in the top 25 in that metric but outside the AP top 25: UNLV (8), Pitt (10), UCF (15), Boston College (24).

What they all have in common is that none of them were receiving AP votes before the season started. You know who was? Boise State. The priors have been validated, and that’s what matters.

By the way, miss me with the “just keep winning and it takes care of itself.” Being ranked is a virtue in and of itself — to players, coaches, fans, and … yes … TV execs — and not being ranked right now after what the Cougs have done is actually actively harming the program.

I guess the optimistic view is that the Broncos present an opportunity to beat a ranked opponent. Maybe that’s better in the long run? I dunno. Whatever, it’s all rigged anyway!

Boise State is good, this game will be hard, and that will largely be because of the guy lining up in the backfield for the Broncos: Ashton Jeanty. He’s got 586 yards and 9(!) TDs on just 56 carries in just three games. He’s averaging more than 10 yards per carry! For what it’s worth, Oregon “limited” him to 192 yards on 7.7 yards per carry.

But it’s not just Jeanty — freshman backup Sire Gaines has 20 carries for 156 yards. This is a potent rushing attack, full stop. However, the QB is iffy and certainly not some one the Broncos want to lean on. WSU will have to work real hard to make that happen.

Defensively, about the only data point we have that’s worth anything is what they did to Oregon; the Broncos limited the Ducks to 352 yards on 6.2 yards per play. But, having watched that game … the Ducks sure did a lot of that damage to themselves.

Boise State opened -7 in Vegas, and that has since climbed to -8.

Kickoff is Saturday 7 p.m. PT on FS1.

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