A History Lesson

Yesterday, WSU jumped into the Associated Press Top 25 poll at No. 21.

For many schools, such an occasion is routine, or at least routine enough that it’s worthy of only smiles and mild celebration. For us, it’s an event so rare so as to elicit jubilation: That 302-week drought dates back to the end of the 2008 season. It’s just the 38th week ever — in the entire history of the AP poll, dating back to 1948-49 — that WSU has been ranked. It’s cast into even more stark relief when you realize that Tony Bennett amassed 29 of those 38 over just two seasons.

Kyle Smith is now the proud owner of 1 of those 38 weeks, joining an extremely exclusive club at WSU; only Bennett, George Raveling, and Jack Friel have ever led the Cougars to a top 25 ranking. Not even Kelvin Sampson can claim one.

Which is why I want to take a moment today to appreciate our coach.

The most memorable and enjoyable seasons are the great ones that seem to come out of nowhere. I can point to a handful of those in my lifetime: Bennett’s aforementioned squads, the 1997 WSU football team, the 2012 Seahawks, the 1995 Mariners.

This one isn’t over, so I’m not going to place them in that “pantheon” yet. But we’re obviously trending that direction, and excitement is building around the program to levels we haven’t seen in nearly a generation.

To be honest, I’m a lot less shocked that this is happening than a lot of you probably are. I’m not going to lie to you and tell you that I saw this coming; in fact, I figured just getting back to the NIT would be a pretty great accomplishment for these guys. But I believed another NIT was possible, and if that was possible, it’s not a huge leap to think that an NCAA tournament appearance is possible.

My belief was not reflective of the consensus. WSU was picked 10th in the Pac-12 preseason poll, which seemed patently insane to me. Not just because I’m a Coug and a Kyle Smith fan — which I obviously am — but because anyone who has paid any attention to Smith’s career would know that there was almost zero chance of that happening.

Two years ago, Craig wrote at CougCenter about Smith’s long history of overperforming his teams’ projections — not only at WSU, but also at Columbia and San Francisco. He noted, “Smith’s teams have beaten their initial KenPom rank in nine of 11 seasons. On average, those squads gain 30 spots.”¹ It looked like this back then:

When we add the last two seasons, it becomes 11 of 13, with the 2022 squad jumping 19 spots (63 to 44) and last year’s team improving four spots (71 to 67).² 

Of course, Smith is going to make it 12 out of 14 at the end of this season — and 5 for 5 in Pullman: WSU began the year ranked 84th, but now sits 33rd. That’s WSU’s highest in-season ranking since the first half of 2011, in which the Cougs spent the entirety of Klay Thompson’s final season in Pullman around the NCAA tournament bubble.

I think there are a couple of primary reasons why Smith is able to do this almost every year.