Gameday Guide: WSU vs. San Diego State

In today's newsletter ...

• Time For A True Test

• Critical Info

• Gamblin’

• This Week’s Podcast

• Injury Impact

  • WSU

  • San Diego State

• Key matchups

  • WSU’s rushing attack vs. SDSU’s rush defense

  • Pash rush vs. pass rush

• What I’ll be watching for

  • Cohesion in week two

• What you can watch for: Gameday Bingo!

• Other games of interest

  • Game of the day

  • Next opponent

  • Opponent after that

  • Sicko Special

Time For A True Test

Washington State survived a tiny bit of a scare in week one against Idaho in which the defense was spectacular and the offense was much less so, scoring just 13 points and getting in the end zone just once, which is the sort of thing that might cause a fan to think we’re in for a long, rough season if it took that much effort to beat an FCS foe that we regularly crush.

It certainly has scared off bettors’ belief in the Cougs, as the line — which opened at WSU minus-6.5 — slid all the way to a pick ‘em in some sports books late in the week. (The lowest now is Cougs minus-1.)

However, with a new coaching staff, seemingly an entirely new roster, a new starting QB, etc. etc., it’s entirely reasonable to simultaneously believe that the game was bad and it also doesn’t necessarily act as an inevitable harbinger of a terrible season. After all, we’ve been down this road before — a couple of times! — except those teams actually lost.

So now San Diego State visits for a weirdly early homecoming matchup in Pullman, which will presumably tell us a whole bunch more about where the team actually is at. It won’t tell us everything (it’s still only two games), but the ramp up in competition level to a team that will be in the Pac-12 next season will give us a much better sense of what we’ve actually got on our hands here.

The Aztecs had no such trouble with their FCS opponent, Stony Brook, whipping the Seawolves 42-0 while outgaining them 453-95. They had the benefit of coaching and roster continuity.

Will that still be a big advantage in week 2?

Critical Info

• Game time: 7:15 p.m. PT

• Location: Gesa Field in Pullman, Washington

• Weather forecast at kickoff: 80 degrees and cloudy, slight breeze. The air quality index is over 100 (unhealthy for sensitive groups) at 8 a.m. today courtesy of fire season.

• How to watch: The CW

• How to listen: WSUCougars.com

• Live stats: StatBroadcast 

Gamblin’

Consensus via VegasInsider.com.

Trends: The Cougs failed to beat the spread in their first game, while SDSU did so easily; both teams went under the number in week one. In last season’s matchup, the Aztecs covered and the game barely hit the under. WSU has beat the spread or covered in just four of their last 10.

Predictive model probabilities: 73% to win, 65% to cover (at -1.5)

This Week’s Podcast

In case you missed it!

Injury Impact

WSU

The Cougars seemed to make it out of week one unscathed, picking up no new injuries of note per friend of Podcast Vs. Everyone, Cougfan.com’s Jamey Vinnick.

Defensive tackle Mike Sandjo (a fifth-year senior transfer from SMU) missed the first game with an unspecified injury, but is expected to return to bolster a defensive line that was dominant in week one, but faces what is very likely a much stiffer test this week in trying to hold down the Aztecs’ rushing attack. Safety Cale Reeder (South Dakota State transfer, fifth-year senior) should also make his debut this week after recovering from a knee injury, although it sounds like he might be a bit more limited in the number of snaps.

Wide receiver Devin Ellison — perhaps the Cougs’ most prized recruit of the offseason — continues to battle a heel injury with no timetable for his return.

San Diego State

Perhaps the Aztecs are simply playing it close to the vest, but I scoured the San Diego Union-Tribune’s SDSU stories from before the season and after the first game for injury news, and there quite literally is none. Actually, check that — there is one: Covers.com lists redshirt freshman receiver Ben Scolari as out. He didn’t play in the opener after not playing at all last year, either. But I don’t think that’s telling us a whole lot! Oh, and third string corner Jelani Whitmore went down for the season during camp.

About the only thing that comes close to injury news out of the first game is that QB Jayden Denegal left a series a little wobbly early in the game, but then he came back in that same drive to finish it for a TD. He played the rest of the game.

I think it’s safe to assume that SDSU is about as healthy as can be expected for a week two football game.

Key matchups

WSU’s rushing attack vs. SDSU’s rush defense

No surprise here. The Cougars were putrid in the run game in week one, something we talked about extensively on this week’s podcast. The key question, of course, is whether that’s skill or scheme or a mixture of the two.

I tend to think it’s a little from column A — the offensive line isn’t as talented at run blocking as coach Jimmy Rogers would like in an ideal world — and a lot from column B. It seems like it’s a pretty intricate run game, something that’s pretty foreign to this particular group of players, and it looked to me like a lot of confusion and overthinking in the face of Idaho’s surprisingly aggressive defensive gameplan against the run.

Here’s to guessing WSU has done some simplifying against a team that likely won’t be able to surprise them in the same fashion as the Vandals, given that the Aztecs retained the same coaching staff and much of the roster. Plus, the Cougs now have the game one film to look at. However, SDSU allowed just 65 yards on 20 attempts to Stony Brook running backs in their opener, so it might be tough sledding again no matter what adjustments are made.

Pash rush vs. pass rush

For all the focus on the run game, the offensive line was excellent against the Vandals’ pass rush, allowing no sacks (other than the bad snap that was statistically classified as one) and just three QB “hurries.” The Aztecs present a much different challenge, with defensive end Trey White leading the charge: He’s the preseason MWC defensive player of the year after posting 12.5 sacks last season plus another six tackles for loss. He didn’t register a sack against Stony Brook, but he did post two of SDSU’s four QB hurries, and — probably most importantly — his teammates collected three sacks, presumably as least partly from the attention White was receiving.

WSU, meanwhile, failed to get home even once last weekend, and only registered two QB hurries.¹ Compounding the matter is that Idaho QB Joshua Wood, in addition to not being tackled in the backfield, rushed for over 100 yards — largely on scrambles. Rogers made it clear in interviews that the lack of QB pressure really stuck in his craw, so it will be interesting to see how the Cougars address that. SDSU QB Jayden Denegal — who stands a whopping 6-foot-5 and 230 pounds² — is mobile, but not nearly the running threat that Wood is. He does, however, have a massive arm (he’s a Michigan transfer) and he’s not afraid to unleash it. Reducing his time to throw vertically will be important.

What I’ll be watching for

Cohesion in week two 

Despite Rogers’ genuflecting toward Idaho in the aftermath of the game, I can’t help a sneaking suspicion that it was treated just a bit like an NFL preseason game from a scheme standpoint. Once upon a time, a new coach showed up and could watch game tape from the previous year to figure out what he inherited. In 2025, you inherit almost nothing — Rogers was building a team from nearly scratch. And practice can only tell you so much, no matter how often you try and go “live.”

I expect the coaching staff to use week one — which felt incredibly disjointed — to inform a stronger, more cohesive strategy for this week, and I expect the team to look a lot tighter from an execution standpoint. I’m extremely curious to see if they use Jaxon Potter’s arm to be a little more attack minded in the passing game this week, as well as whether they deploy Julian Dugger in a little more purposeful fashion this week.

What you can watch for: Gameday Bingo!

Other games of interest

Here are some other games you might want to watch today. All game times PT.

Game of the day

Not a great day for ranked matchups, and your mileage might vary on whether you want to watch John Mateer play …

No. 15 Michigan at No. 18 Oklahoma (-5.5) — 4:30 p.m., ABC

Next opponent

North Texas (-10.5) at Western Michigan — 12:30 p.m., ESPN+

Opponent after that 

UC Davis at Washington (-28) — 8 p.m., Big Ten Network

Sicko Special

¡El Assico!

Iowa at No. 16 Iowa State (-3.5) — 9 a.m., FOX

1  It should be noted that stats such as “QB hurries,” which rely entirely on what the statkeeper deems a “hurry,” can vary wildly from school to school and even week to week, so stats like this — WR drops is another one — should be taken with a minor grain of salt.

2  By contrast Jaxon Potter is 6-foot-5 … and 205.