In today's newsletter ...

• WSU (5-6) vs. Oregon State (2-9)

• Critical Info

• Gamblin’

• Key matchups

  • WSU’s offense vs. OSU’s defense

  • WSU’s defense vs. OSU’s offense

• What I’ll be watching for

• What you can watch for: Gameday Bingo!

WSU (5-6) vs. Oregon State (2-9)

Of all the weird things we’ve endured over the past couple of years, this one might take the cake: A rematch with Oregon State, just four weeks after playing the Beavers the first time.

If the circumstances were slightly different, maybe we’d be looking at this rematch reluctantly. Like, for example … if we’d won the first game. We’d already be bowl eligible, which wouldn’t leave a whole lot on the line but playing a familiar foe who also has nothing to play for as a weird formality.

But since we didn’t win the first time around, and in fact are not yet bowl eligible, the stake are high for WSU. But that might not even be the biggest thing motivating the Cougars.

I’m guessing that would be revenge.

The Cougs lost the first game in the ugliest fashion possible despite being superior in pretty much whatever metric — other than points, of course — that you want to use. Players tend to take that sort of thing personally, and now the Beavers have to come to our house to try and pull off another upset.

For OSU, this is just one final game after a weirdly late bye game in a lost season under an interim coach and at the end of a very long bus ride that will be played in frigid temperatures against an extremely motivated opponent that has been very, very tough to beat at home.

The Beavs got us with the dead cat bounce the first time around. Seems unlikely they’ll do it a second time … ?

Critical Info

• Game time: 3:30 p.m. PT

• Location: Back Home

• Weather forecast at kickoff: 36 degrees and cloudy, slight breeze

• How to watch: The CW

• How to listen: WSUCougars.com

• Live stats: StatBroadcast 

Gamblin’

Consensus via VegasInsider.com.

Trends: WSU is 6-1 in their last seven ATS, including easily covering their two home games since September. OSU is just 3-8 ATS, including zero for their last two. WSU has gone under the number in seven straight, and OSU has gone under in its last three.

Aggregated predictive model probabilities: 86% to win, 58% to cover (at -13.5)

Key matchups

WSU’s offense vs. OSU’s defense

There’s no sugarcoating that this is where the game was lost the first time around. Only scoring seven points against OSU’s awful defense was a travesty and failure of pretty epic proportions, and the Cougs on that side of the ball have much to prove in this one.

Particularly Zevi Eckhaus. The senior quarterback was about as putrid as could be in round one, and he’s been only marginally better since then. That said, there’s often something motivating about a player’s senior day when it’s clear it would be the last game of their career if they don’t win, and you can bet that Zevi would like to finish strong.

As usual, WSU is unlikely to win this game on his arm — he hasn’t thrown for more than 200 yards since going for 218 against Mississippi, and the only other time he eclipsed that mark was in the Apple Cup. But as we know too well, his arm can definitely lose the game, as it did the first time around. Here’s to hoping his “hero” tendencies are in check even as the emotions are strong.

Much more important will be WSU’s ability to run the ball. Senior center Brock Dieu will miss the game with a foot injury, and it was his absence in the first game that really caused the offense to sputter. However, right tackle Christian Hilborn has returned (he missed game one) and Dieu’s backup Kyle Martin has more experience now than he did then.

WSU’s stable of running backs has seen a bit of a shift recently in who gets to carry the ball. An injury to Leo Pulalasi and a move away from an ineffective Angel Johnson has pushed the door wide open for redshirt freshman Maxwell Woods. In addition to his contribution last week — 10 carries, 43 yards on the ground with three catches for another 28 yards — you might also remember he was a major contributor on the final drive against OSU that should have at least yielded a game-tying field goal. He could be in for a sneaky big game today.

But again … senior day. Is Johnson going to reclaim a bunch of carries in light of that? If so, will offensive coordinator Danny Freund be able to scheme up some touches that play to his strengths? That hasn’t been the case … yet.

It’s also the last home game for wide receiver Josh Meredith who has, improbably, spent his entire five-year career in Pullman. I would love nothing more than for him to have a huge day at the end of it.

WSU’s defense vs. OSU’s offense

The Cougars absolutely dominated this facet of the game in the first matchup, allowing just 184 yards — a season-low output for OSU.¹ They absolutely could not (would not?) throw the ball against WSU, nor were they really forced to since WSU’s offense didn’t make them chase the game.

A lot of that was due to Gabarri Johnson, who is certainly more of a runner than a thrower. OSU didn’t even really trust him to put the ball in the air, and it was only when he went down with an injury that erstwhile starter Maalik Murphy came on to make one spectacular throw, which was enough to win the Beavers the game. Johnson returned to the starting lineup the following week and threw it pretty well against Sam Houston State, but he struggled mightily in the followup to that at Tulsa, getting bench for Murphy. It didn’t work. Murphy also was bad, so interim coach Robb Akey turned to freshman Tristan Ti’a in the fourth quarter of the blowout. He was very good!

So now … who starts? Akey is being coy, saying, “I might start all three of them!” It probably doesn’t matter, but I’ll say this: WSU has absolutely feasted on teams that don’t have a credible thrower at quarterback. I don’t think Ti’a is seriously on the table, so it’s going to be back to Johnson and Murphy. I think Murphy gives them a better chance to win, but the dynamic with him can best be described as completely dysfunctional, so I’m guessing it’ll be Johnson — and I think that’s pretty good news for WSU.

Last time, the Beavers seemed to empty their bag of tricks early to try and get something going. None of it worked. It did work last week in the second half for James Madison, though. I’m going to guess there’s been an extra big emphasis this week on eliminating explosive plays — that’s how OSU ended up scoring its TD in the first one — so I won’t be surprised if the Beavers maybe move the ball a little better than the first time around, at least at first.

The key, though, will be if WSU can score a couple of TDs to make them chase. At that point, the defense will feast. 

Injury Impact

WSU

As usual, big thanks to our friend and friend of the pod Jamey Vinnick for prompting injury updates at Jimmy Rogers’ weekly news conference. Here’s my interpretation of each player’s chances of playing:

PROBABLE

• Safety Cale Reader

• Wide receiver Carter Pabst

QUESTIONABLE

• Running back Leo Pulalasi

OUT

• Center Brock Dieu

Oregon State

Akey didn’t provide any updates this week.

What I’ll be watching for

At this point, there’s not a lot of analysis left to be had. WSU was the better team the first time around and didn’t win, and I see no reason to think anything much has changed since then. There’s not a cat-and-mouse game of adjustments here. WSU just needs to play the way they play, and if they do, they very likely win handily.

I think the real question here is whether the Beavers’ hearts are even in it. They’ve got a new coach hired for next season, and the vast majority of the roster and coaching staff is going to be moving on. How engaged will they be — how willing to really fight — if there’s some adversity early? I think that’s what ultimately was the difference in the first one: WSU let them hang around and hang around and hang around and eventually start believing that a win was possible.

The Cougs would be wise to end their hope early today.

What you can watch for: Gameday Bingo!

1  It was a season-low allowed for WSU at that point, but it was bettered the following week against Louisiana Tech.