While 1-3 wasn’t the hoped-for outcome of the non-conference schedule, none of us can say it wasn’t entirely unexpected. But without a decent win in the bank and now needing five more wins in the final eight just to get bowl eligible, today’s game takes on added meaning beyond the fact that it’s WSU’s debut in the new (but not improved) Pac-12.

Ramping up the pressure is that this is the last home game for a few weeks. A win next week against Utah State would be expected, but they’ll probably be underdogs the week after at Oregon State and then they’ll assuredly be underdogs when they return home to play Boise State on the 24th. Lose today, and it’s not hard to see a scenario where the season goes off the rails.

Win today, though — in front of what is likely to be the biggest crowd of this homestand, thanks to Family Weekend — and it becomes much easier to hand-wave the losses to Power Four teams and forecast a strong finish that results in contending for a conference title, since only the Broncos are close to the level of Kansas State, Arizona, and Washington.

To be honest, the more I dug into the Bulldogs, the better I felt about WSU’s chances to not just win today, but win comfortably. Sure, Fresno State is 3-1, but if you flip the schedules of the Cougs and Bulldogs, both likely emerge with the record of the other. And the underlying numbers of Fresno’s offensive and defensive units actually make them look quite a bit worse. They really can’t throw the ball on offense, and they give up huge chunks of yards on defense. If the Bulldogs struggle to run and the opponent doesn’t give away the ball, they don’t have much else.

Turnovers have obviously been a bugaboo, but if the Cougs can just not do that, I think we’re in for a lot of celebration tonight.

Onward!

Consensus via TeamRankings.com.

Predictive model probabilities: 47% chance for WSU to win, 46% chance to cover

Until Pinnick and the WSU passing attack give me a reason to not write about them every week, I’m going to keep writing about them every week. Saturday against Arizona was finally a big step in the right direction, as WSU posted a season high in attempts (40) and yards (241) while also posting their highest yards per attempt (5.9) of the three games against Power Four opponents.

To be clear, that’s still not good. But if we zoom in a little on just the first half, there’s some reason to actually maybe get a little excited: Pinnick was 14-for-19 (74%) for 147 yards (7.7 yards per attempt) as the Cougs took a 17-14 lead into the break. The only thing keeping that from being objectively excellent is that one of the incompletions was a horrendous interception.

Ah yes … the interception. One of four that Pinnick has thrown this season, with a fumble thrown in last week for good measure. Sometimes interceptions just happen when you throw the ball enough times, but that can only really be said about his second INT against Washington. The rest — including the fumble — were all the result of just boneheaded decisions.

On the one hand, bad decisions can presumably be corrected. On the other … [waves hands in the general direction of Jameis Winston and other QBs of his ilk]

Which could be a real problem today! Fresno State is eighth nationally in takeaways with nine. There’s a school of thought that takeaways aren’t really in the control of the defense, given that the player holding the ball ultimately decides what to do with it — Pinnick being example 1A — and that there is some randomness involved (will the defensive player catch a ball that hits them in the hands, does the ball bounce this way or that on a fumble). There surely is some luck involved in Fresno State’s takeaways.

But there also definitely are defensive players who get more than their fair share when the quarterback makes even a questionable decision, and nickelback Simeon Harris seems to be one of those. Of Fresno’s six interceptions, three belong to Harris, a fifth-year senior originally at Colorado by way of Utah State who now has eight picks across just 17 games in his two seasons as a Bulldog.

The Fresno State defense really, really relies on those turnovers, because the defense is otherwise pretty awful. Even with all those drive-ending takeaways, they’re allowing 403 yards per game (114th nationally) and 6.06 yards per play (112th) despite having played just one quality opponent. It’s the takeaways that have allowed them to have the No. 38 scoring defense in spite of all those yards.

If the Cougs — specifically Pinnick — can simply not give the ball away, they should have ample opportunities to put points on the board. And I’m actually cautiously optimistic about it. That first half was really good, and Pinnick didn’t really otherwise put the ball in danger on Saturday.

But given his propensity to pull a terrible decision out of nowhere, this is likely to be a high variance game, one way or another: We’re either talking about how Pinnick has turned a major corner, or we’re questioning whether he should even be starting. I don’t see a lot of in between.

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The Bulldogs want to run the ball, but one might even go so far as to say they really need to run the ball to have success offensively. They’ve got 135 runs against just 108 passes this season, a whopping 55% run rate. Even accounting for the fact that some of those runs are sacks and scrambles (college football doesn’t separate those into the passing game), it’s still probably a roughly 50/50 split — something you don’t see very often in football anymore.

However, how good they actually are at running the ball is, I think, pretty up in the air. They were horrible at USC to open the season, then performed well in the next three. But the opponents … wellllllll …

There’s every reason to think WSU will hold up better than Sacramento State, San Jose State, and Rice, but it’s worth noting that the Bulldogs do have a pair of running backs who can hurt you, as well as a running QB. Rayshon Luke is nicknamed speedy, and at 5-foot-10/180 pounds, he’s a threat to bust long ones. Bryson Donelson is more the bruising type. Jayden Mandal is a dual threat guy whose legs are a legit weapon.

That said, there are questions about Mandal’s arm. Often times, run-heavy teams are counting on using stacked boxes to set up explosive plays in the pass attack (hello, K-State), but that ain’t Fresno: In three of their four games — USC, San Jose State, and Rice — they failed to exceed 6.4 yards per attempt or 210 yards overall. For context, the median YPA in FBS is 7.6. (Fresno State did have a hugely productive passing game against Sacramento State, but WSU did the same against Duquesne, and we know what that’s worth.)

Not coincidentally, Fresno State is one of the worst teams in the country on third down. If WSU can stuff Fresno State’s running game and consistently put the Bulldogs in long down and distance, it’s going to be a very difficult day for them: On 3rd and 7+ yards to go, they’re just 8-of-14 passing for 62 yards and only three 1st down conversions. Matyus McLain and Linus Zunk will eat against an offensive line that is likely to still be down two of its best players — and maybe three, as you’ll see below. They gave up a ton of pressures last week against Rice, and that was with them running the ball well.

From Pac-12.com injury availability reports Friday evening.

Seeing Trey Leckner listed as probable sure is a welcome sight. WSU’s top tight end has yet to play this season, and for a passing game that has generally sputtered, there’s a chance he provides a meaningful boost. He’s likely the fastest of WSU’s tight ends, and he had a penchant last season for finding himself open in the red zone, tying for the team lead in touchdowns with three, despite only catching 24 passes.

Kirby Voorhees and Jalil Tucker were characterized by Moore as “gametime decisions.” Voorhees would be the more visible loss, but WSU has other capable running backs. Tucker’s absence, though, has been a thorn in the side of WSU’s pass defense. The Cougars really, really need him back.

Nylan Brown and Jack Ellison are new ones this week, and while neither is a major contributor, it does eat into WSU’s depth there against a team that definitely wants to run the ball. Expect WSU to go with a largely three-man rotation of starters Keith Brown and DJ Warner with reserve Isaiah Hung mixed in. That’s mostly what it’s been, anyway, but if any of them go down, it suddenly gets a little perilous.

The Bulldogs will be down 60% of their starters on the offensive line if Breyden Walton, Jonah Leaupepetele, and Gino Quinones are out. Walton was the starter at left tackle, but his absence last game forced their center out wide into his spot, and he was replaced by a former walk on making his first starts. Fresno’s offensive line has struggled without those two, and in reading practice reports from the Bulldogs’ 247 site, it sure sounds like neither are likely to play. Quinones, meanwhile, is a new addition to the report as of Friday night.

Harold Duvall hasn’t played since the season opener when he caught a couple of passes against USC. He only caught four passes in nine games as a freshman last season, so I’m not sure if his absence or presence is all that consequential.

Logan Studt and Niko Baumgartner are both reserves who were added to the report Friday night, so if they don’t go, Fresno’s depth and special teams play is what takes the hit.

Ryan Wilson’s story is a bummer — he was a seventh-year player who worked his way up to starter this season before suffering a season-ending leg injury in the season opener at USC.

All game times Pacific Time Zone.

#5 Ohio State (3-1) [-14] at #14 Iowa (4-0) — 12:30 p.m., CBS
The line is two TDs, but predictive metrics believe that the difference between them is only about one TD.

Utah State (1-3) at #22 Boise State (3-1) [-18.5] — 4:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network

Oregon State (2-2) [-6.5] at Colorado State (2-2) — 3 p.m., USA