Well, actually, Moscow — that’s where my Airbnb is. I’ll be in Pullman in a few hours. But even driving through town late last night on my way to the border, I got that feeling I think we call get when we come Home. For me, it’s been wat too long: I haven’t been back for a football game since we stunned Wisconsin in 2023.

So many sad Badgers fans!

In so many ways, this game feels a lot like that one.

Less than a month removed from finding out our conference was being pulled out from under us, the visiting Badgers — the first Power Five team to actually come to Pullman in a very long time — represented an opportunity to show the world that we still belonged, no matter what a bunch of greedy conference commissioners and TV execs thought.

Today, three years removed, the stakes are similar: Another “power conference” team comes to town with another opportunity to show the world that we’re not going anywhere, even as the media spent the last two years pretending we had died and wishing we would just go away and stop bothering everyone.

When I looked at this season’s schedule, I immediately targeted this one as the game where I’d finally come back. The prospect of sticking it to a former conference mate — on national TV, as it turns out — was too good to pass up. It also seemed like a game where it would probably play an outsized role in the direction of at least the season, if not the program. The two opening games on the road were always going to be very difficult, and the home opener was almost assuredly going to be a foregone conclusion.

Which meant this one was probably always going to be the one that set the tone for what we might be able to expect — or dream about — for the remainder of the season. Whatever you thought about the team’s chances on the road at Washington and Kansas State, you surely thought — as I did — that a home game against a team that we have regularly beaten in this stadium was extremely winnable.

And I wanted to be here as part of the crowd, playing my role in urging the Cougs on to victory. Wisconsin in 2023, Oregon in 2018 … I’ve been here for a number of games where the palpable fan energy seemed to propel the team, and I think today will have that kind of juice.

I think it’s hard to overstate what a win today would do. Obviously, there’s a pretty huge difference between 1-3 and 2-2, just on its face. But there are a whole lot of other elements around the program that would get a major boost. Kirby Moore would secure his first signature win as head coach. The near-sold out crowd would witness, first hand, why this is a program that is still worth getting behind. And if the team manages to go on to win the conference, this is a major point of favor with the CFP committee.

The thing I remember most about that day in 2023 was the cathartic release after the victory — so much anger, so much disappointment about our situation just came pouring out of everyone. I’m looking forward to a similar emotional outburst today, but this time, because it represents where we’re going, rather than where we’ve been.

Consensus via TeamRankings.com.

Predictive model probabilities: 30% chance for WSU to win, 54% chance to beat the spread (at +10)

In this section, I normally pick a couple of specific units that will square off against each other — like, say, “WSU’s secondary vs. Arizona’s receivers” or “WSU’s pass rush vs. Arizona’s offensive line.” But slowing down Fifita today just will not be as simple one single thing like “get pressure on him” or whatever. It’s going to take a total team effort to limit Fifita — and, by extension, the entire Arizona offense.

Fifita is very, very good. He’s now Arizona’s all-time passing yardage leader, having leapt over Nick Foles last weekend. The Wildcats drop back to pass on an Air Raid-like 63% of their plays and they are 3rd nationally in completion percentage (78%!) and 20th in passing yards per game (just a hair over 300),¹ so they’re going to throw come hell or high water, and they’re going to complete a ton of passes while doing it.

The question is just how much the Cougars can limit the damage those completions do. While the Wildcats have piled up a lot of yards, their yards per attempt ranks 38th — and I think that even oversells how explosive they’ve been, given that the sheer number of completions means there aren’t as many zeroes in that average from incompletions as other teams have.

The Cougs absolutely will need to get pressure up front — the best way to limit damage downfield is to not give the QB enough time to throw it that far. And in that regard, Arizona has struggled a bit this year. Fifita has taken eight sacks through three games (including four against Northern Illinois at home last weekend) and has been forced to scramble seven other times — those two things combined represent about 15% of Fifita’s dropbacks. That’s a lot! And that doesn’t even include other pressures that don’t show up in the box score because the pass got thrown.

Arizona’s offensive line has been super shaky, and there’s a huge opportunity here for the Cougs to get Fifita off his spot.

But that won’t be all that’s needed. They’ll need their linebackers to rally to the shorter completions — because Fifita can check down with the best of them — and they’ll have to be sure tacklers when they get there. And they’ll also need the secondary to not only have sound coverage, but also stick with receivers when Fifita starts running around to buy time.

If WSU is going to hold down the Wildcats, it’s going to take everyone.

Play calling skill is something that is notoriously difficult to quantify from an outside perspective. Given enough games, we can compile a solid amount of data that reveals tendencies on certain downs and distances. But on a game-to-game level, it’s kind of impossible. Not only do we not know all of the variables that go into any particular decision, including any scouting for very specific situations (3rd and goal inside the opponent’s 10 yard line, for example); it’s also subject to small sample sizes and results-based analysis.

Run it on 3rd-and-4 and convert? Hell yeah, what a gutsy play call!

Don’t convert? WHAT ON EARTH WAS HE THINKING???? YOU HAVE TO PASS IT THERE!!

When we try to take a larger view within a game, all we really have at our disposal is … vibes.² And while I’m the first person who will tell you that how we feel about something is usually about the worst way to evaluate it, it’s kind of all we’ve got. When it’s going well, it feels like a well-choreographed dance in which the various actors are moving in step with each other as one move leads to another before culminating in something beautiful.

To that end, the second half last weekend was the first time all season we felt that kind of purposeful synchronization when the Cougars had the ball. It wasn’t just that the results were better — the results in the first half were actually pretty good other than the score, and the truth is that there were non-play calling reasons for that. It was more that it finally felt like the play calling was giving them an advantage. The Cougars averaged an eye-popping 10.3 yards per play, and the explosives weren’t just a result of superior players; it was a result of putting superior players in advantageous positions.

How much coach Kirby Moore had to do with that is a bit opaque. Moore was seen on the sidelines with a play sheet for the first time all season, yet he was adamant after the game that play calling duties had remained with offensive coordinator Matt Miller. Moore characterized it as simply having some input. Whatever his level of involvement, it was more than it had been, and while correlation doesn’t equal causation … it’s really hard not to read into it. You can’t really have two chefs cooking in the kitchen, but you certainly can have a lesser chef do the work while the head chef directs them. This is probably the way forward that gives the Cougs their best shot at offensive productivity.

I’m hopeful we see a continuation of what they started seven days ago.

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Not a lot of change this week, although players get closer.

Heading into last week, it was thought that both of WSU’s starting corners — who were injured in the Apple Cup — would return. Khamari Terrell did indeed make it back against Duquesne, but Jalil Tucker was a gametime scratch after warming up. Moore says Tucker will be a gametime decision again this week. The most logical conclusion is that he was held out last week, knowing this week is when he’d really be needed against an incredible passing attack. His presence would obviously be huge.

Tight end Trey Leckner is “getting close,” according to Moore, which is vague enough to conclude that he’s probably still at least a week away and won’t play today. Defensive ends Malachi Wrice and Mike Hughes both remain out for the foreseeable future, which means keeping Linus Zunk and Matyus McLain fresh will continue to be a challenge.

Arizona is not what you would call “healthy” heading into this one. Wildcats coach Brent Brennan is definitely more coy than Moore when it comes to updates, but these players all left the game against Northern Illinois with injuries and didn’t return to the game, according to WildcatAuthority.com:

Meanwhile, stud wide receiver Gio Richardson went out the week before against BYU and then didn’t play against NIU. He’s still their leader in catches and yards, even after playing just five quarters this season. Tucson Star reporter Justin Spears joined Cougs on the Couch and said this:

I find it notable the Brennan didn’t seem to say anything about him in his media availabilities this week. In my experience, silence usually represents, “he’s not going to play but I don’t want to say that because I want the other team to spend time preparing for him.” We’ll see, I guess.

All game times Pacific Time Zone.

#1 Texas (3-0) [-4] at #14 Tennessee (3-0) — 9 a.m., ABC

Fresno State (2-1) [-13.5] vs. Rice (1-2) — 7 p.m., CW

Utah State (0-3) [-3] vs. Troy (2-1) — 4:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network

Last week of nonconference games before the rebuilt Pac-12 starts its “inaugural” season. There are a couple of interesting games in here. First off, Colorado State at UTSA is sneaky important; the Rams are nearly two TD underdogs on the road, and the Roadrunners are projected to be one of the better teams in the American. A win there would be a good feather in the cap of the conference.

The other involves Boise State, which is a TD favorite on the road at Western Michigan. The Broncos, of course, are best known for beating — errrrr, nearly beating — Michigan in the Big House. They’re a pretty good team! Should be a good game.