Gameday Guide: WSU at Oregon State

In today's preview:

• How worried should we be?

• Critical Info

• Gamblin’

• Did you miss the podcast?

• Key matchups

  • WSU defense vs. OSU offense

  • WSU offense vs. OSU defense

• What I’ll be watching for

• What you can watch for: Gameday Bingo!

• Other games of interest

  • Game of the day

  • Next opponent

  • Opponent after that

  • Late-night Sicko Special

How worried should we be?

Every bit of evidence from WSU and Oregon State’s respective seasons suggest the Cougs should be able to handle the Beavers today without too much difficulty.

WSU is 4-4, on track to make a bowl game, and has put up four strong performances on the trot. Oregon State is 1-7, already eliminated from bowl contention, and fired their coach three weeks ago. Predictive metrics say the Cougars are a clear step above the Beavers, and when those metrics are aggregated, they say that WSU is expected to win this game by 8 or 9 points. Even though these metrics have quite a bit of variance, only one of 40 ratings systems at The Prediction Tracker thinks the Beavers should be favored — and that’s only by 1.9 points¹ — which is also the only one that thinks the Beavers should even beat a 4-point spread (which is where it sits this morning).

AND YET.

Trepidation abounds. Why? Because of course it does. We’ve been hurt too many times before, and we know that a loss-proof WSU team doesn’t actually exist. But if you’re hoping I’ll start inventing a bunch of stuff to be worried about just because they might lose to a bad team, you’re in the wrong place.

Should I be worried about Robb Akey being their coach because he was our defensive coordinator 20 years ago and seems like a very friendly and excitable man? Nope. He’s probably an upgrade over Trent Bray, if only because Bray had become untenably toxic. Akey also had his shot at being a head coach in the late 2000s and was … ok? … but never earned that title again. He’s been a defensive coordinator here and there, most recently at Central Michigan, and he was hardly the defensive wizard we sometimes think he was when our defense was loaded with NFL guys.

Should I be worried about this as some kind of “trap”? I don’t see why. WSU isn’t going to overlook Oregon State; the Cougs still have much to do to accomplish their goals this season. And Oregon State … what exactly do they have to play for? Last season, the Beavers were desperate and had to win to keep bowl eligibility alive. That is certainly not the case today. And if there was going to be some kind of “dead cat bounce” from firing the coach … wouldn’t that have been in the last game?

OSU did get its first win of the season with Akey at the helm before last week’s bye. They also trailed the mighty Leopards of Lafayette College at halftime before unloading over the final 20 minutes or so. Maybe that’s evidence of some kind of Akey magic we should fear, but I don’t think so. And while I don’t doubt that Oregon State would really like to win this game, I have a hard time seeing them mustering some kind of supernatural energy to overcome the fact that they are actually quite bad. They know they’re quite bad, and they also know that the majority of them will be at other schools next year.

None of this means a loss is completely off the table, because of course not. But this is a game that WSU should win, and win fairly handily. That won’t stop us from exploring the key matchups the Cougars will need to exploit in order to ensure that they fly back to Pullman with a win, but it’s OK to say out loud that a win is the expectation.

Critical Info

• Game time: 4:30 p.m. PT

• Location: Reser Stadium — Corvallis, Oregon

• Weather forecast at kickoff: 58 degrees, 60% chance of rain, slight breeze

• How to watch: CBS, cbssports.com 

• How to listen: WSUCougars.com

• Live stats: StatBroadcast 

Gamblin’

Consensus via VegasInsider.com.

Trends: WSU is 6-2 ATS and has gone over the number just 3 times in 8 games. OSU is only 2-6 ATS and has gone over the number 5 times in 8 games.

Aggregated predictive model probabilities: 81% to win (by an average prediction of 9.6 points) and 60% to cover (at -3.5)

Did you miss the podcast?

Key matchups

WSU defense vs. OSU offense

Frankly, the Oregon State offense doesn’t really do anything well. That’s pretty wild considering they paid a reported $1.5 million for Duke transfer QB Maalik Murphy and retained a pretty good running back in Anthony Hankerson. Instead of transforming their passing attack, Murphy’s season hit its nadir on Saturday when he was benched one series into the second half while trailing against Lafayette, only to watch his backup, Gabarri Johnson, lead the team to 35 points the rest of the game to give the appearance of a blowout in a game that was actually close for a long time.

Akey isn’t saying who will start. Each is one-dimensional in their own way. Murphy (6-foot-5/234 pounds) will remind you of Tucker Gleason, the QB we just saw on Saturday for Toledo; big, not too mobile, decent passer. Johnson (5-11/186) might remind you more of a shorter version of Idaho’s Joshua Wood. Against Lafayette — in one half of play — Johnson was 7-of-9 for 79 yards, a TD and an interception, but he also picked up 82 yards on just six carries with a TD. He’s an exceptional athlete but a questionable passer.

Here’s the thing I noticed watching that game: Lafayette had a great gameplan for Murphy … and they did not have a great game plan for Johnson, as OSU pivoted to almost exclusively zone read runs and passes that were built off the zone read. Whoever starts for OSU, the Cougars will be ready for both in a way that Lafayette was not.

I think Johnson will be the starter, for what it’s worth. Murphy’s tenure has been pretty toxic, and I don’t see how Akey can put Murphy right back out there. That means WSU would be facing a run-first attack, and we know how they have performed against those. Hankerson has been ineffective despite having been highly touted, and while Johnson is a bit more athletic than most of the QBs they’ve faced, he’s still pretty one dimensional — even if that dimension is pretty good. If you want to convince yourself that we are doomed by facing an athletic QB, it’s worth asking why Johnson wasn’t handed the keys to the offense until now. A former four-star recruit from Lincoln High School in Tacoma, he originally went to Missouri before redshirting and then transferring to OSU before last season. He played in six games in 2024, and OSU went out and got Murphy, anyway.

But I also don’t think Murphy starting is off the table. I obviously don’t expect it, but it won’t surprise me if it happens, since Akey surely knows what we know about WSU against running teams. I also won’t be surprised if Johnson does start but gets a quick hook if things are stalling out, especially if WSU is able to build a lead where it’s clear that OSU is going to have to throw the ball. And I’ll be even less surprised if OSU comes out with some gadgets or packages that try to use both guys — perhaps, even at the same time.

What I will be surprised by? Any of it sustainably working.

WSU offense vs. OSU defense

Again, this is a pretty bad unit. Pick your metric:

• Yards per game: 111th (412.6)

• Yards per play: 124th (6.34)

• Expected Points Added allowed per play: 125th (0.128)

• Opponent’s points per drive: 118th

• ESPN’s FPI (opponent-adjusted efficiency): 117th

• Brian Fremeau’s FEI (opponent-adjusted drive efficiency): 109th

And, again, that doesn’t necessarily mean that they’re incapable of causing the Cougs a bit of trouble, but a pretty bad Wake Forest offense walked in there recently and dropped 39 points at a clip of 8.67 yards per play against them.

Of particular note to WSU is that most everyone has been able to have at least some success running the ball on the Beavers. The Cougars, of course, want to be able to move the ball on the ground in order to control the tempo of the game, and their rushing attack has improved significantly over the course of the season:

Given OSU’s terrible rankings overall, it’s also unsurprising that they’ve been awful at taking the ball away. They have just five takeaways all season — all interceptions. Before getting one against Lafayette two weeks ago, their last interception came on September 26 against Houston. We know all too well, though, that turnovers are more in the hands of the offense than the defense, which puts a spotlight directly back on Zevi Eckhaus, who has thrown four picks the last two weeks, at least three of which can be classified as awful decisions.

I am certain that Jimmy Rogers and offensive coordinator Danny Freund have been drilling ball security into Eckhaus’ head all week. I also think they probably don’t trust him on that front at this point. So I’d expect the game script to follow a familiar pattern: Slow start with lots of conservative calls, likely with only moderate success. Then, opening things up a little late in the first quarter as Freund identifies spots to safely attack, before finally experiencing some sustained success in the second quarter.

I doubt it will be pretty, but Jimmy don’t care about pretty.

Injury Impact

WSU

In the best news we could get, Isaac (Bobby) Terrell “should be good to go this week,” according to Rogers. The defensive end has been the Cougars’ best player this year, and having him back to terrorize OSU’s offensive line is huge. Other players of note:

• DE Raam Stevenson: “Still up in the air” but he practiced this week.

• OT Christian Hilborn: “Probably doubtful.”

• OT Jaylin Caldwell: “Out.”

• TE Hudson Cederland: “Going to go through some practices and see how he looks.”

• DT Mike Sandjo: “Up in the air, but probably out.”

• DT Kaden Beatty: “Out.”

Sounds like of all those players, Stevenson is probably the only guy we’ll see today. That means another week of the shuffled offensive line. Here’s to hoping familiarity starts to pay off.

Oregon State

Honestly, can’t really find anything! I’m going to assume that means there aren’t any major ones.

What I’ll be watching for

Given a week to prepare with Oregon State’s current situation, I’m going to assume they’ll be prioritizing any way possible to get out to a fast start in this one and put points on the board early. Given Akey’s personality, I think it’s also likely that it will involve the deployment of some unexpected surprises — trick plays, unique packages, etc.

If it works, I’ll be interested in how WSU responds. Everything we’ve seen from these guys for the past four games suggests they’ll be unfazed by it. But college players are still young folks, which means things don’t always happen in the linear fashion we expect. It’s worth noting that the Cougs were terrible (after games against UNT and UW) until they weren’t (dominating Colorado State).

I expect WSU to maintain their workmanlike approach against the Beavers.

What you can watch for: Gameday Bingo!

Other games of interest

Here are some other games you might want to watch today. All game times PT.

Game of the day

No. 9 Vanderbilt (7-1, 3-1 SEC) at No. 20 Texas (6-2, 3-1 | -3.5) — 9 a.m. | ABC

Next opponent

LOUISIANA TECH beat Sam Houston on Friday, 55-14.

Opponent after that 

JAMES MADISON beat Texas State on Tuesday, 52-20.

Late-night Sicko Special

No. 17 Cincinnati (7-1, 5-0 Big 12) at No. 24 Utah (6-2, 3-2 | -10.5) — 7:15 p.m. | ESPN (as long as you subscribe to something other than YouTube TV)

1  Something called the “Congrove Computer Rankings,” which I had never heard of until now.