Gameday Guide: WSU at North Texas

In today's newsletter ...

• Yet another kind of test

• Critical Info

• Gamblin’

• In case you missed it: This week’s podcast!

• Injury Impact

  • WSU

  • North Texas

• Key matchups

  • WSU’s pass defense vs. UNT’s Air Raid

  • Jaxon Potter vs. the road

• What you can watch for: Gameday Bingo!

• Other games of interest

  • Game of the day

  • Next opponent

  • Opponent after that

  • Also fun

Yet another kind of test

I’m always fascinated by the home/road dynamic of sports. My mind thinks “flying to another city and playing a game can’t be all that different” — cue Hickory High coach Norman Dale — but it obviously is, because the results forever and ever tell us that it’s pretty different.

Which brings us to Washington State’s first road game of the year, in which the Cougars are going to play the North Texas Mean Green in the lovely city of Denton in front of what the school is hoping will be its first sell out ever at DATCU Stadium. In addition to it being Family Weekend, the school also is hosting “Rockin at DATCU, which will showcase musical entertainment from the Denton community throughout the day, headlined by North Texas alumnus and music icon Tom ‘Bones’ Malone's national anthem and halftime performance alongside the Green Brigade.”

When you’ve got the iconic trombone player from The Blues Brothers showing up, you know the headwinds are going to be against you.

The gamblers seem to be anticipating that, as the majority of the money has come in on the Mean Green, pushing the line all the way up to UNT -5.5 in many places after they opened as a 3.5-point favorite. Yes, UNT is at home … but the Mean Green needed a pretty massive comeback last week to beat Western Michigan in overtime. That doesn’t scream “nearly a touchdown better than WSU” to me.

The fun storyline here, of course, is that UNT’s coach is Eric Morris, who was twice an assistant at WSU: First as inside receivers coach on Mike Leach’s first staff back in 2012, and then again as offensive coordinator under Jake Dickert in 2022.

Critical Info

• Game time: 12:30 p.m. PT

• Location: DATCU Stadium — Denton, Texas

• Weather forecast at kickoff: 87 degrees and sunny, 55% humidity

• How to watch: ESPNU

• How to listen: WSUCougars.com

• Live stats: StatBroadcast 

Gamblin’

Consensus via VegasInsider.com.

Trends: Both teams are 1-1 ATS; both teams went under the number in week one and over the number in week two.

Predictive model probabilities: 50% to win, 59% to cover (at +5.5)

In case you missed it: This week’s podcast!

Injury Impact

WSU

Once again, the Cougars appear to have emerged from their last game relatively unscathed; coach Jimmy Rogers reported no new injuries of significance at his Monday press conference.

Defensive tackle Mike Sandjo played last week as expected, so that was great to see. Rogers indicated last week that South Dakota State transfer safety Cale Reeder would play, but he actually did not. Reeder is a full go for this week, giving the Cougs’ already excellent pass defense another tool in the bucket for defending UNT’s version of the Air Raid.

Wide receiver Devin Ellison still remains out with no new news on his timeline for recovery. At this point, it seems like the prized recruit is far from playing — and, given Rogers’ progressively terse responses when asked about Ellison’s status, it’s now fair to wonder what else might be going on beyond the mysterious “heel” injury.

North Texas

The biggest anticipated absence is sophomore backup running back Kiefer Sibley, who was injured in last week’s game against Western Michigan. He had formed quite a 1-2 punch with starter Makenzie McGill II, rushing 13 times for 76 yards and a pair of TDs in the first two games.

Senior starting right tackle Jimto Obidegwu, a Kent State transfer, missed the last game, but could return.

Key matchups

WSU’s pass defense vs. UNT’s Air Raid

As we saw from his time in Pullman, Morris is an Air Raid disciple through and through. Nobody runs the “pure” unadulterated version anymore that Leach held on to all the way until his passing, but Morris’ version isn’t too far off, even if they’ll run the ball quite a bit more.

Which is to say that this is very different kind of offense than the Cougs have faced so far. Neither of the first two QBs WSU faced are particularly potent pocket passers, and the Cougars used that to their advantage. That changes today: Redshirt freshman Drew Mestemaker has completed 65% of his 65 passes, averaging 8.5 yards per attempt with five touchdowns and no interceptions.

Although we haven’t seen WSU take on a passing attack this prolific yet, I really like their chances for two reasons. Air Raid plays are often designed to put defenders in a pickle in space where their choice inevitably leaves a receiver open, but WSU has proven to be incredibly disciplined so far. Additionally, the Cougars rally to the ball as well as any WSU team I’ve seen, and there will be plenty of completions in front of them that will require containing yards after the catch.

Jaxon Potter vs. the road

Quarterbacks and “first road starts” often don’t mix well; Mestemaker had his own issues last week in his first start away from home. Potter has so far performed in a way that belies his inexperience, doing the things that are paramount to Rogers’ offensive philosophy: No negative plays, take care of the ball.

Will his composure hold up in the face of a hostile crowd against a defense that now has a couple of games of film to figure out how to make him uncomfortable?

What you can watch for: Gameday Bingo!

Other games of interest

Here are some other games you might want to watch today. All game times PT.

Game of the day

I hope you have two screens!

No. 6 Georgia at No. 15 Tennessee (12:30 p.m., ABC)

Next opponent

Washington has a bye.

Opponent after that 

Colorado State also has a bye.

Also fun

Florida at No. 3 LSU (4:30 p.m., ABC)