WSU (5-5) at James Madison (9-1)

• Are the Dukes a paper tiger?

• Critical Info

• Gamblin’

• Key matchups

  • JMU’s offense vs. WSU’s defense

    • The Dukes score a lot of points, and they do it wi …

  • WSU’s offense vs. JMU’s defense

• Injury Impact

• What I’ll be watching for

  • I feel really good about WSU’s ability to hold JMU …

• What you can watch for: Gameday Bingo!

• Other games of interest

  • Here are some other games you might want to watch …

  • Game of the day

  • Next opponent

Are the Dukes a paper tiger?

When WSU announced this game as part of its hastily assembled schedule, it was immediately thought to be a potentially tricky game when you combined all the travel of the season with a midmajor program that’s been pretty good since jumping up from FCS in 2022.

I don’t think anyone thought we’d be playing a potential CFP qualifier,¹ but that’s where we are today. And there’s a pretty decent chance that it’s actually only the Cougs who are standing between the Dukes and that playoff berth. They’re currently behind two-loss Tulane in the non-P4 category — the Green Wave are the only G6 team ranked in the CFP top 25 — and the fact that one-loss JMU sits behind them can be directly attributed to one simple fact: JMU’s schedule has been awful.

Yes, a team can only play who’s on the schedule. And the Dukes have crushed just about every one of those tomato cans — especially in the last month, where they’ve outscored their opponents 208-80. That superlative scoring margin is exactly why the Dukes have become a darling of most of the advanced predictive metrics. And that’s legitimate. Again, you can only play who’s in front of you.

But basketball fans from the Bennett era will remember how WSU beat the snot out of less or even similarly talented opponents before struggling a bit with the UCLAs and Stanfords of the late 2000s, which were loaded with NBA players. I’m not saying that we are somehow much more talented than JMU and therefore the Dukes will struggle with us, I’m just suggesting that their schedule has been so weak and the other teams so bereft of talent that the pummelings might not be entirely reflective of the Dukes’ actual level — particularly when they’re going to be engaging in a much fairer fight this weekend.

On the other hand, we’ve got a pretty good idea about WSU. They’ve played Mississippi and Virginia and taken both to the wire. The Cougs are obviously not above stubbing their toes, but they are battle tested in a way that JMU is not — and they’ve already shown they can play real well in this kind of a situation.

The Cougs are both the highest rated and most talented team JMU has played since the their week two loss to Louisville by a pair of TDs. This is a different kind of test for the Dukes than the ones they’ve been taking. To be clear, I’m not saying the Dukes are no good — I’m simply saying we really don’t know how good they actually are.

Maybe they’re CFP good.

Or maybe WSU will expose them as a pretender.

Critical Info

• Game time: 10 a.m. PT

• Location: Bridgeforth Stadium — Harrisonburg, Virginia

• Weather forecast at kickoff: 54 degrees with a 50% chance of rain, slight breeze

• How to watch: ESPN+($)

• How to listen: WSUCougars.com

• Live stats: StatBroadcast 

Gamblin’

Consensus via VegasInsider.com.

Trends: WSU has beat the spread in five of the last six games after opening the year 1-3 ATS. JMU is 3-3 ATS in their last six after starting the year 4-0. JMU has gone over the number in four straight after opening with six straight unders. WSU has gone under in six straight.

Predictive model aggregate probabilities: 22% to win, 53% to cover (at +13.5)

Key matchups

JMU’s offense vs. WSU’s defense

The Dukes score a lot of points, and they do it with a relentless ground attack that is 6th nationally in rushing yards per game. That’s partially due to running the ball on 60% of their plays (437 non-sack rushes, 287 dropbacks). They have seven players — including two quarterbacks — who have at least 17 carries this season, including three players with more than 80 carries. (By contrast, WSU — another run-forward team — has five players with 17 carries and just two with more than 80).

It does raise a little bit of a chicken/egg question, though. Clearly, they prefer to run. But do they run this much because they actually want to run this much? Or do that run this much because they can against their weak opponents? I think it’s probably the former: The one game they’ve lost this year, they rushed the ball 47 times — at 2.7 yards per carry — and threw it 31 times. They’re going to try to run, pretty much no matter what.

That’s probably really good news for WSU.