I don’t think anyone thought we’d be playing a potential CFP qualifier,¹ but that’s where we are today. And there’s a pretty decent chance that it’s actually only the Cougs who are standing between the Dukes and that playoff berth. They’re currently behind two-loss Tulane in the non-P4 category — the Green Wave are the only G6 team ranked in the CFP top 25 — and the fact that one-loss JMU sits behind them can be directly attributed to one simple fact: JMU’s schedule has been awful.

Yes, a team can only play who’s on the schedule. And the Dukes have crushed just about every one of those tomato cans — especially in the last month, where they’ve outscored their opponents 208-80. That superlative scoring margin is exactly why the Dukes have become a darling of most of the advanced predictive metrics. And that’s legitimate. Again, you can only play who’s in front of you.

But basketball fans from the Bennett era will remember how WSU beat the snot out of less or even similarly talented opponents before struggling a bit with the UCLAs and Stanfords of the late 2000s, which were loaded with NBA players. I’m not saying that we are somehow much more talented than JMU and therefore the Dukes will struggle with us, I’m just suggesting that their schedule has been so weak and the other teams so bereft of talent that the pummelings might not be entirely reflective of the Dukes’ actual level — particularly when they’re going to be engaging in a much fairer fight this weekend.

On the other hand, we’ve got a pretty good idea about WSU. They’ve played Mississippi and Virginia and taken both to the wire. The Cougs are obviously not above stubbing their toes, but they are battle tested in a way that JMU is not — and they’ve already shown they can play real well in this kind of a situation.

The Cougs are both the highest rated and most talented team JMU has played since the their week two loss to Louisville by a pair of TDs. This is a different kind of test for the Dukes than the ones they’ve been taking. To be clear, I’m not saying the Dukes are no good — I’m simply saying we really don’t know how good they actually are.

Maybe they’re CFP good.

Or maybe WSU will expose them as a pretender.

Consensus via VegasInsider.com.

Trends: WSU has beat the spread in five of the last six games after opening the year 1-3 ATS. JMU is 3-3 ATS in their last six after starting the year 4-0. JMU has gone over the number in four straight after opening with six straight unders. WSU has gone under in six straight.

Predictive model aggregate probabilities: 22% to win, 53% to cover (at +13.5)

The Dukes score a lot of points, and they do it with a relentless ground attack that is 6th nationally in rushing yards per game. That’s partially due to running the ball on 60% of their plays (437 non-sack rushes, 287 dropbacks). They have seven players — including two quarterbacks — who have at least 17 carries this season, including three players with more than 80 carries. (By contrast, WSU — another run-forward team — has five players with 17 carries and just two with more than 80).

It does raise a little bit of a chicken/egg question, though. Clearly, they prefer to run. But do they run this much because they actually want to run this much? Or do that run this much because they can against their weak opponents? I think it’s probably the former: The one game they’ve lost this year, they rushed the ball 47 times — at 2.7 yards per carry — and threw it 31 times. They’re going to try to run, pretty much no matter what.

That’s probably really good news for WSU.

Yes, the Dukes have been potent on the ground, but teams of this particular style have found things to be quite difficult against WSU’s run defense — that doesn’t just include the last few opponents such as Louisiana Tech, Oregon State, and Toledo, but also Virginia and Mississippi, each of whom found the going tough against the Cougs. In fact, only the Rebels have mustered even 4.0 yards per carry against us since the North Texas/Washington mess.

However, unlike LaTech/OSU/Toledo, the Dukes have a more-than-capable passer under center in dual threat QB Alonza Barnett III. JMU’s passing game is about as explosive as it gets, having a streak of three straight games of over 11.0(!!) yards per attempt broken in last week’s win over Appalachian State. There’s not one receiver to key in on, either — five different receivers have caught between 12 and 35 passes. And one quick side note on Barnett: He’s really tough to stop on designed short-yardage runs.

Teams that sell out to stop the run against JMU usually pay. WSU will have to be at its disciplined best.

For me, this is actually where the game gets worrisome. James Madison’s offense gets all the attention for scoring all those points, but as we said — WSU’s defense is different than what they’ve faced. The same can’t be said the other way around: WSU’s offense isn’t good, the Dukes have faced offenses of roughly the same quality, and they have at least held them in check — and often dominated.

The Cougs would love nothing more than to lean hard into the running game and manage Zevi Eckhaus’ risky throws, something they did pretty well last week against Louisiana Tech. But that has generally been predicated on taking a multi-TD lead and then sliding into game management mode, and that lead will be hard to get today.

The Dukes are particularly strong against the run, ranking 4th best in the country in success rate allowed on rushes. That means when teams run the ball, they often find themselves behind the chains on the next down, which is obviously not the position you want to put Eckhaus in. It gets worse! JMU is 2nd nationally in success rate allowed on dropbacks. Now, I want to be clear: These are not opponent-adjusted metrics, and their Expected Points Added does look a bit less dominant when adjusted for opponent strength. But it paints a story of a team that consistently puts teams in positions they don’t want to be: Behind on the scoreboard and trying to catch up without being able to stay on schedule.

An interesting statistical note: JMU has faced an above average number of designed QB runs, and has been very good at stopping them. WSU, of course, has generally liked to have Eckhaus carry the ball between five and 10 times a game on designed runs, and those have gone a long way toward covering up for the offense’s deficiencies over the last month or so.

And in case you’re wondering: The Dukes haven’t intercepted a bunch of passes this year. But the interceptions haven’t always been about the defense, so … [shrug]

It appears that everyone who returned for WSU against LaTech emerged no worse for wear after the game. That included offensive linemen Christian Hilborn and Brock Dieu, who made a massive difference up front. Running back Leo Pulalasi returned for a handful of carries and looked fine, defensive end Raam Stevenson looked good in his snaps, and tight end Hudson Cedarland also looked healthy. I’m particularly interested in the line play with Hilborn and Dieu having a week under their belts and with Stevenson expanding his snap count.

As for everyone else, blessings to our friend and friend of the pod Jamey Vinnick at Cougfan for asking for the rundown of injuries at Jimmy Rogers’ media gathering each week. Here are my reads on the probability of these folks playing, based on Rogers’ comments:

PROBABLE

DOUBTFUL

OUT (all probably for the season at this point)

No major injuries to report that you would care about!

I feel really good about WSU’s ability to hold JMU in the 20s in this game, which means it will be up to the offense to keep up.

The Cougars have been maddeningly inconsistent on offense, moving the ball well at times, and then failing to move it at all at others. They rank 101st nationally in “quality drive” ratio — they penetrate the opponent’s 40-yard line just a little over one third of the time. They’ve been able to mitigate that somewhat, though, by being one of the best teams in the country at cashing in when they do get in there: Their points per quality drive is 8th nationally. It’s kind of a crazy contrast that doesn’t make a lot of logical sense.

JMU’s defense, conversely, has been exceptional at both limiting quality drives (7th) and keeping teams from scoring if they do move it in there (10th).

I don’t expect WSU to suddenly start marching up and down the field all game. Can the Cougs keep up their weird track record of maximizing their handful of opportunities? Empty scoring chances will probably doom their ability to win this game.

Here are some other games you might want to watch today. All game times PT.

CLASSIC BIG TEN MATCHUP ALERT!!!

No. 15 USC (8-2) at No. 7 Oregon (9-1, -10.5) — 12:30 p.m., CBS

Oregon State is on a bye this week. It’s the second of their two byes, and the other one came the week before they played us the first time. Hmmmmmmm …