HAPPY COUGAR BASKETBALL VICTORY MORNING.

I wrote on the Slack before the game that I actually thought we had a pretty good shot at a double-digit victory against Pacific, despite the fact that the Tigers were ranked higher than us and ahead of us in the WCC standings. Pacific built their kenpom ranking on beating the snot out of the plethora of bad teams on their schedule, and they had played the second-easiest WCC schedule so far this season. And we’re very good at home!

So no, last night wasn’t exactly impossible to see coming. But still, it feels darn good to put a three-game losing streak in the rearview mirror with what ended up being a comfortable win.

Back in Beasley, the Cougar did what they’ve done all year, which is play pretty great at home. The game wasn’t a runaway to that final 17-point margin; after securing a double-digit lead in the first half on some ridiculously hot shooting (even for WSU), Pacific walked the lead all the way down to one with just under 14 minutes to play. The Cougars were struggling mightily to score; after putting up 51 in the first half, they could muster only eight points in the first six minutes after the break as Pacific — which is a solid team and well coached by Dave Smart — did a good job taking away the shots the Cougs like.

But as a friend said on the Slack game thread (upgrade here to join us!), the difference between home and road for these guys is that they respond to adversity in Pullman, and that’s exactly what they did: In the midst of a rough night for him, Jerone Morton stepped up to hit 3s on back-to-back possessions and launch a 16-2 run that left WSU with a 75-60 lead with about eight minutes to go. The win probability surged from 56% to 97%, and it showed in the Tigers’ play as they more or less packed it in down the stretch.

Tomas Thrastarson took the floor for the first time in a couple of months, and he immediately showed why the Cougars have missed his presence. He did what he does so well: He defended and he got into the lane to mix it up on both ends, scoring 11 points and grabbing five rebounds — including two offensive boards. He was so instrumental in so many different ways that I actually considered him for the MVP slot up top.

At 6-foot-7 and 215 pounds, he gives coach David Riley additional flexibility with lineups as a defensive Swiss Army knife. Against Pacific, he soaked up a bunch of minutes that likely would have otherwise gone to Simon Hildebrandt in a matchup where size wasn’t at a premium. In fact, he joined Adria Rodriguez as the first guys off the bench, replacing Hildebrandt in that role.

It’s almost certainly not an accident that the Cougs’ defense took a nose dive after he got hurt. I’m not saying his absence is responsible for everything, because it’s not, but also … for a team that struggles so mightily on that end, taking a guy like him with length and strength out of the rotation does make a difference: He’s not as tall as Hildebrandt, but he does everything else better than Simon on the defensive end, including rebounding.

It does make you wonder where the team might be if he hadn’t gotten hurt.

Center/forward Emmanuel Ugbo hasn’t played in five games due to a suspension for what Riley called a “violation of team rules,” and we’ve finally gotten a handle on the likely reason why: the pursuit of a civil protection order against him by a woman he used to date.

After initially granting a temporary protection order last week, a judge formalized it with a permanent protection order yesterday morning. The details of the alleged actions are pretty icky, akin to what we might call stalking, and Ugbo is no longer allowed to contact her or go near her.

Notably, the judge said that he didn’t see any reason why this would legally prevent Ugbo from continuing to play basketball, but after remaining with the team during the process over the last few weeks, he was not on the bench last night.

When asked by Spokesman-Review reporter Greg Woods what the ruling meant for Ugbo’s season, Riley said, “I can’t comment on it.” When Woods asked again, Riley again said, “I can’t comment.” And that was that.

Riley might just be copping out. He might also be playing it close to the vest. But I think it’s most likely that Ugbo’s status is being handled by folks higher up in the department — probably as part of an ongoing Title IX investigation, which is the sort of thing that would preclude Riley from saying anything.

At this point, it’s hard to imagine he plays for WSU again this season, and probably ever.

Time for the rematch! The Gaels prevailed in the first matchup, but only by six points. As has been the case all season, it was the defense that proved to be WSU’s undoing — despite hanging close enough to make the Gaels sweat a little, including pulling within three points with seven minutes to play, a decisive 12-2 run over just a few minutes gave SMC a 13-point lead with four minutes to go.

But now Saint Mary’s has to come to Pullman, and it’s not an exaggeration to say that the Cougars are a different team at home. Barttorvik estimates WSU is a top 100 team at home, so while both him and kenpom put the Cougs’ chances at just around 25% based on the typical home court advantage, I’d put our chances even higher than that — maybe around 1-in-3 instead of 1-in-4. That’s not nothing, and I’ll be really surprised if the Cougars don’t make it a really good game — and I’ll not be surprised at all if they win in what will assuredly be the final game in Pullman for at least a few players.¹

Beyond the emotional factors, there are still very real stakes for WSU in this one: A win here gives them an actual leg up over their competition for the No. 4 seed in the WCC. If you’ve watched any broadcasts, you’ve heard them talk ad nauseum about this: The way the WCC’s bracket is set up, a 4 seed puts the Cougs directly into the tournament quarterfinals and needing just three wins to secure an — extremely unlikely, but not impossible — NCAA bid. Land at 5th or 6th and you move back a round, needing to win four games in four days; drop to 7th or 8th and it’s five games in five days; drop to 9th (pretty unlikely at this point, but still possible) and it’s six in six.

Tip off on Saturday is at 7 p.m. with ESPN2 carrying the broadcast.

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